REPUBLICANPUNDIT

"Narrow race." "Few undecideds." "Concentrating on turning out the base."

Yeah, right. Chalk one up for the main stream media getting it wrong again (not that the blogosphere was much better).
 

I'm delighted with this news, but I have a distinct recollection that in the 2000 race Gallup was the most volatile and erratic of all the polls, and by quite a bit. Something sticks in my mind about a 17-point swing in a single week, and the Gallup explanation (which I have forgotten) left me thinking that their polls should simply be disregarded. Anyone remember any details?
 

That's funny. Two new polls come out today showing the race is neck and neck and the overconfident R's pointing to news articles that mention, near the end of the story, that a Gallup poll shows almost certainly erroneous data. Wishful thinking only gets you so far...
 

The lead may not be quite as high as Gallup indicates, but other evidence is indicating that they are much closer to the real story than Pew and Harris are.

Witness the most recent state polling:

Bush is only behind by 6 in New York
Bush is only behind by 4 in Illinois
Bush is *LEADING* by 4 in New Jersey

Meanwhile in the battlegrounds, Bush is currently leading in: Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Arizona, and Wisconsin. And they're tied up in Minnesota.

I don't need a national poll to tell me that this has the makings of a Bush landslide when the bluest of the blue states have become "battleground" states and the "battleground" states have turned red.

Only the heartiest Kerry partisan could look at the polling results in these states and not realize that right now Kerry is on the verge of being on the receiving end of a McGovernite electoral result...

...and that's before you even start talking about the Gallup results...
 

All one has to do is take a look at the state polls to see that Kerry is in trouble. Those are the real tea leaves to read. Bush is strong in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota right now while Ohio, Missouri, and West Virginia look like locks for him.

Kerry is in serious trouble now and that has nothing to do with the Gallup poll. Any serious political observer can see that the electoral noose is tightening around his neck.

Personally I hope the Democrats think that they are still treading water. It'll make the re-election all the more sweeter...
 

In the electronic markets, Kerry's been tanking. Iowa Electronic Markets has Bush 59/40
 

National polls are the evil spawn of the establishment media. Since the electors are not elected by the national vote total, only state-by-state electoral vote polls have any relevance.
 

But then a Pew Research survey released a day or so earlier said that Bush had a 1% lead with likely voters, well within the statistical error. Who are these guys calling? A 13 point difference in result indicates to me that someones questions or sampling methods are flawed.