Wednesday, September 08, 2004
Votes for Republican presidential voters have been underestimated on an average of 5%. Only once, 1n 1992 was the Republican vote less than expected (probably skewed because of Ross Perot), all others was at least 3% more than projected. In 1980, the republican turnout was a whopping 14% more than was projected, (Reagan Democrats were responsible) and in 1976, 8% more republicans voted for their representative.
Voters for a Democrat President were over estimated by an average of 1.46%. Only once, in 1988, was the democratic vote substantually more than projected in the Gallup Poll, 5%. in 2000 it was 1% more than projected, all other years, it was less than projected.
Another interesting statistic shown is that in all of the elections since 1976, when there was an incumbent president, the democrat vote was over estimated.
What does this survey mean? There is clearly a 6 point difference favoring the Republican candidate on election day, compared with polls taken immediately after labor day.
It also may mean that the pollsters have yet to effectively account for the Republican Revolution.
The current Labor Day polls show President Bush with a seven point lead. Newsweek and Time polls both show an 11 point lead for the President. Newsweek and Time may have got it exactly right. We will know who was actually closer to polling correctly on 3 November.