Friday, September 17, 2004

CBS POLL: Bush by 9: 50 to 41

Just announced on Fox and Drudge. Good news for us, bad news for Johns and Dan (Rather)

What if the polls are Right?

Al Hunt, a noted liberal, asked the question today in the wall street journal: "What if the polls are wrong?"

I recently posted an article (included with this post) which showed that polls statistically missed the republican turnout by as much as 3% to 5%. Republican turnout on election day is 3 to 5 percent higher than the polls showed on Labor Day.

It seems a little disengenious for liberals, who have constistantly pointed to polls which favor them, to fret about the recent 13 or 14 point lead for President Bush over John Kerry. Now they are wringing their hands because the poll no longer is favoring them. This is important because, at some point, it is going to become harder to gain donations if your Oxe is being gored in the polls.

I am now asking this question: "What if the polls are right?" Could it be that Gallup has now figured out that the Republican Revolution actually did happen and is now effecting the polling aparatus? I am convinced that the Gallup poll will prove to be more accurate than the rest after the votes are counted on election day.

My earlier post:

Wednesday, September 08, 2004

Skewered toward Democrats: Study of Gallup Poll numbers since 1976

An analysis of the Gallup Poll numbers since 1976 of the polls at labor day versus actual turnout in November:

Votes for Republican presidential voters have been underestimated on an average of 5%. Only once, 1n 1992 was the Republican vote less than expected (probably skewed because of Ross Perot), all others was at least 3% more than projected. In 1980, the republican turnout was a whopping 14% more than was projected, (Reagan Democrats were responsible) and in 1976, 8% more republicans voted for their representative.

Voters for a Democrat President were over estimated by an average of 1.46%. Only once, in 1988, was the democratic vote substantually more than projected in the Gallup Poll, 5%. in 2000 it was 1% more than projected, all other years, it was less than projected.

Another interesting statistic shown is that in all of the elections since 1976, when there was an incumbent president, the democrat vote was over estimated.

What does this survey mean? There is clearly a 6 point difference favoring the Republican candidate on election day, compared with polls taken immediately after labor day.

It also may mean that the pollsters have yet to effectively account for the Republican Revolution.

The current Labor Day polls show President Bush with a seven point lead. Newsweek and Time polls both show an 11 point lead for the President. Newsweek and Time may have got it exactly right. We will know who was actually closer to polling correctly on 3 November.





Link


More good news for President Bush

The Catholic vote appears to be gravitating to the President. When their vote is coupled with an already strong Protestent vote, this is starting to be a groundswell for Republicans.

Christians have been persecuted for too long by the Democrats and the main stream press. It is about time we fight back...

President Bush, Kerry speak to National Guard

I just watched both speeched to National Guard in Las Vegas this week.

The way the audiance responded to each was vastly different. President Bush had several standing O's. He had to finally quite them down after he said he will "always defend America first", because they were clapping, whisling, yelling "oorah".

Senator Kerry got some polite applause, but, I thought he got some very impolite silences. I almost felt sorry for him (well, almost)

I heard on one of the news programs that quite a few walked out during the speech. My hat goes off to the walkers...


More rude Democrats

Just think how mad they are going to be after the election

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