Originally posted by myself this AM at INDC Journal.
It was so good (at least, I thought so) I am posting again here. Please Let me know what you think.
"Kos and his ilk are convinced that they can re-invent the party much like Goldwater and the conservatives did in 1964.
Let's compare the situation between then and now:
In 1964, most Americans identified themselves as conservatives and at least half of those lived in the South and were solid democrats. Republicans at that time were the Wall Street and Park Avenue variety. FDR had co-opted the South with his New Deal programs and Social Security. He solidified the whole country during WWII. Eisenhower won the presidential election as a Republican, but he wasn't a long time party member.
Goldwater was both a social and fiscal Republican and disliked the government largesse created by FDR and to some extent, Ike. Even Kennedy was a conservative at the time. Goldwater knew that if he could get the south back into the Republican party, he could start rebuilding the party. The civil rights movement was just starting to reach it's zenith. The southern Democrats were very much anti-segregation and were not happy with the Democratic party and were looking for somewhere else to go. Although the Republican party was pro -integration and indeed passed most of the civil rights legislation, the southern Democrats were so upset that they started joining the Republican Party. Except for civil rights, the southern Democrats were in agreement with the Republican Party on most other programs. Since politics does indeed make strange bedfellows, the south started becoming conservative. This became an avalanche during the late sixties and seventies when the Democrats mistakenly sided with the anti-war crowd. By 1972, the Republicans were getting the presidential votes to lead Nixon to a landslide, mainly due to southern voters. At the same time the local governments in the south were still mainly Democrat, however, the terrible Carter presidency started to change that situation. By the time Reagan started to run for the Presidency, the perfect storm happened The southern Democrats suddenly turned Republican, while the rest of the country remained conservative. By 1994, the whole south had become Republican and all southern Democrats who had not switched were thrown out of office and replaced by Republicans. Suddenly there were more voters identifying themselves as Republicans than Democrats. This was the first time since the late twenties that this phenomenon had happened. Republicans have held congress since 1994, except for about a 10 month period in 1991 when Jumpin' Jim Jeffords gave the Democrats the majority for a short period of time. Now Republicans enjoy a substantial majority in both houses and, of course, the presidency.
The Kos crowd looks at what the conservatives did and hope to duplicate it. It will not happen. Only about 21% of Americans identify themselves as liberals. As they drive the party more to the left, any conservative Democrats who did not come over with Reagan will shortly become Republicans. There will be no conservative base. Because the lefties are so repugnant, most moderates will now become Republicans,or,at least vote that way.
The Kos revolution is dead before it gets started and will lead the Democratic Party to near oblivion. It will take years for the Democrats to get enough voters back to even consider themselves a viable party".